AAP Must get at least 25 crore votes in 2014

How many people will vote for AAP? Here is a prediction. Sure, future is impossible to predict. This approximation is based on statistics of results taken from 2009 and considering other results and observations in the result of recent elections in Delhi,

Taking cues from 2009 
Total voters - 71 crores
% voted      - 54% = 38 crores

CONG UPA share  : 37%  15 crore  (out of 38 crores)
NDA BJP share      : 24%   10 crore
Third front               : 21%  8 crore



Changes in 2014

New voters: 8-10 crore new registrations
Total voters: 81 crores
Voting %    : 65% = 52 crores


Information at hand about AAP and some info from Delhi Results

• AAP has 1 crore members made just in one month.
• Another important notice that in Delhi None Of The Above (NATO) were only .5 and other states like Rajasthan
  
• Congress's vote share in Delhi was reduced to 15% from 40%. And the major share of these votes were gone to AAP. BJP only had a increase of 2 % votes from its last time.

Now the predictions

• AAP members
  1 crore members with average 4 member family = 4 crore votes. 
  
  
• Congress voters Votes from Congress's loss (from 37% to 15% at least 50% of this should go to AAP) - 10 crore votes
  
  
• From third front this one is hard to predict and to be conservative in making estimates, let's say 1 crore votes here?
  
  
• New Voters and NATO there are new almost 10 crore new voters voting this time. In Delhi NATO (None of the above option) was less and it is believed that much of this credit goes to AAP. Because people wanted a third option.
  
  Total increase of voters this year: almost 10%, +  4 % NATO +  10% increase in voting percentage = TOTAL 24% people who are new to the voting scene and voting with "change" in mind. Let's also believe that with most modest estimates that out of this 24% only 12% will vote for AAP.
  
  12% of 81 crores := 10 Crores

Totals:

• AAP members:                   :  4 crores
• Congress's share                 :  10 crores
• Third front                          :   1 crore
• New Voter and NATO      :   10 crores

Total: 25 crores possible votes for AAP

The problem and concerns:

• Votes might be distributed
  While AAP will definitely be getting a lot of votes. But would it be able to win seats, that's a little difficult. AAP will stand strong in total vote share, but the votes might be distributed.
  
  Yes, it will winning seats, but not a lot unless something changes in next two months. AAP will need to run ads and other campaigns on newspaper, TV, media etc.
  
  

So i think AAP will get 25 crore votes! 

Dear BJP/Cong this "better third front" will force you to perform! Perform well, or you will loose your voter share! And otherwise your mistakes will make YOU the third front and by your logic all third front should be rooted out of the country!

Which im sure you would not want. 

Netaji, Jaag Jao, Aam Aadmi Aa gaya hai!